Often in front of medium and large earthquakes are small shoes that can fix modern measuring instruments.
Natural earthquakes occur mainly for two reasons: these are collisions of tectonic plates and volcanic activity. Every year, thanks to more accurate measurement methods, scientists register more and more of these natural phenomena. But to predict their appearance in advance almost never. The way to fix it offers the work of researchers from the California Institute of Geophysics.
Previously, scientists noted that earlier only half of all earthquakes were observed more weak events. Now a new study of earthquakes in southern California with magnitude 4 and higher between 2008 and 2017 shows that at least 72% of them had "harbors" – earlier and weak shoes.
Opening gives scientist a better understanding of how most earthquakes arise. The theory that earthquakes can grow, as if accumulating energy, from small shocks to powerful seismic phenomena, is confirmed. This means that it is possible to develop a method of predicting devastating natural phenomena based on data on seismic activity in real time.
The work of scientists does not mean that we all must suddenly worry about small earthquakes. According to statistics, only 5% of such phenomena will develop into something terrible. This breakthrough was only possible thanks to the discovery of a new technique for detecting very small earthquakes – with magnitude 0 and 1, sometimes even minus 1 and minus 2. But to detect these shoes is difficult. Today it cannot be done in real time – only with the help of a supercomputer processing that takes a couple of weeks.